Caste Census in India: The Politics of Counting Without Revealing

Nowhere else in the world has it ever happened that the population of the oppressor keeps decreasing while that of the oppressed—the deprived and the exploited—keeps increasing. This peculiar trend is visible only when one examines the census records of India from 1872 to 1941, during British colonial rule. That era was marked by subjugation, and although the rulers shared data with their subjects, it hardly altered the social structure. Today, however, revealing such data could trigger political tremors. Even self-proclaimed socialists may find it impossible to stitch the torn social fabric back together.

That’s why, just like the Bihar government conducted a caste survey but withheld its complete findings, the chest-thumping central government in Delhi is unlikely to make a national caste census report fully public. They will count—but they won’t tell. And if they ever do, it will be under the cover of some extreme national distraction—perhaps a terrorist attack, war drums at the border, or a hyper-nationalist media blitz that drowns out public inquiry.

Colonial Data, Modern Discomfort

Census data from 1872 to 1941 reveals a steady decline in the Hindu population—from 73% to 66%—while so-called oppressed communities saw an increase. The Muslim population rose from 21% to 23%. The Buddhist population also saw an increase, from around 1.5% to 3.6% by 1931, only to fall sharply to 0.06% in 1941 after Burma (now Myanmar) was separated from India. Religious conversion patterns further explain the shift—many moved from Hinduism to Buddhism and then to Islam. Informed observers won’t blame Hindus for this; but the usual suspects from the “tukde-tukde gang” might try to spin it.

Bihar: A Microcosm of the Nation

At the national level, caste census findings will likely mirror what Bihar’s revealed. Just days ago, Patna witnessed a “Paan Rally” organized by IP Gupta—a caste-based show of strength by the Tanti-Tantwa community, where a new political outfit, the Indian Inquilab Party, was launched.

The Bihar survey showed that Musahars form 3% of the population, roughly equal to the Paswans. To capture this segment, Prashant Kishor made a Musahar leader the face of his Jan Suraj Party, while Jitan Ram Manjhi also claims their representation. Former IPS officer Shivdeep Lande launched his own party, Hind Sena, triggering comparisons with Kishor’s outfit. Bihari streets now buzz with debates over “Pande vs. Lande.”

Kishor and RCP Singh—both former number-twos in JD(U)—have floated their own political parties. In Seemanchal, where the Muslim population exceeds 30%, Owaisi’s AIMIM has managed to field and elect candidates from Purnia, Katihar, Araria, and Kishanganj. But RJD later absorbed many of them.

Caste-based outfits like the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP)—representing Nishads, Kevats, and Mallahs—also made brief electoral gains despite being snubbed by big players like JD(U) and RJD.

Fragmentation and the Coming Rally Storm

Then there’s Chirag Paswan, working to consolidate Dalit votes via the 3% Paswan population and the larger SC/ST base. And this is just the beginning. Soon Bihar may witness rallies titled:

• Kurmi Unity Rally
• Koeri Outrage Rally
• Teli Roar Rally
• Dhobi Rights Rally

The Bihar caste census revealed Kurmis at 2.9%, Koeris at 4.21%, Telis at 2.81%, and Dhobis at 0.83%. Brahmins, once perceived as powerful, are just 3.65% of the population—less than Yadavs (14.26%), Paswans (5.31%), Ravidas (5.2%), and Koeris (4.21%). Others like Rajputs (3.45%), Musahars (3.08%), Kurmis (2.87%), Bhumihars (2.86%), and Mallahs (2.6%) fall close behind. Kayasths, the once-dominant urban caste, now account for just 0.60%.

Data Collected, Data Buried

At the national level, this “count but conceal” strategy is not new. In 2011, the Congress-led UPA government conducted the Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC). While socio-economic data was released in 2016, the caste-related figures were withheld. The data was handed to the Ministry of Social Welfare, and an expert group was formed—but no conclusions were made public.

Distraction as Policy

The current government has shown grit—whether in handling CAA/NRC protests, farmers’ movements, or Delhi violence. When it comes to caste census, a shrug and a vague statement like “perhaps our penance was lacking” might be all it takes to sweep inconvenient truths under the rug again.

Because if revealed, the numbers—just like in Bihar—could rewire politics forever. And for many, that’s the real threat.